The Probative
Paper account · as of 2026-09-04Last close
FrançaisEvery order placed since May 13, 2026, in the sequence it was executed. Closed positions keep their result, winning or losing. Positions still held carry the thesis that justifies them.
This record is from a paper account. No real money was committed. The orders, execution prices and dates are those actually recorded by the broker, so gains and losses are computed on genuine fills — but simulated ones.
The portfolio
+9.68%
S&P 500 (SPY)
+4.02%
V
Visa
+7.08%
427 × $350.27
Read the thesis →
IDCC
InterDigital
+15.98%
434 × $291.39
Read the thesis →
RMD
ResMed
+6.29%
594 × $214.83
Read the thesis →
PAYX
Paychex
−3.81%
737 × $126.53
Read the thesis →
ADBE
Adobe
−4.08%
333 × $277.86
Read the thesis →
MSCI
MSCI Inc.
+0.35%
152 × $570.99
Read the thesis →
META
Meta Platforms
+11.39%
93 × $553.70
Read the thesis →
MA
Mastercard
−2.84%
79 × $596.14
Read the thesis →
What the book held after each day it changed. Five names at the start, 9 by June, 8 today.
2026-05-13
5
CENT · IDT · LAUR · MCRI · URBN
+ CENT IDT LAUR MCRI URBN
2026-06-08
9
AOS · ASO · CENT · GAP · IDT · INGR · LAUR · MCRI · URBN
+ AOS ASO GAP INGR
2026-06-09
7
ASO · CENT · IDT · INGR · LAUR · MCRI · URBN
− AOS GAP
2026-06-10
6
ASO · FHI · INGR · LAUR · LRN · UHS
+ FHI LRN UHS
− CENT IDT MCRI URBN
2026-06-12
5
FHI · INGR · LAUR · LRN · UHS
− ASO
2026-06-15
6
FHI · INGR · LAUR · LRN · OII · UHS
+ OII
2026-06-22
7
FHI · INGR · LAUR · LRN · OII · SBH · UHS
+ SBH
2026-07-07
6
GOOG · IDCC · MCK · MSFT · RMD · V
+ GOOG IDCC MCK MSFT RMD V
− FHI INGR LAUR LRN OII SBH UHS
2026-07-14
6
GOOG · IDCC · MCK · MSFT · RMD · V
2026-07-29
6
GOOG · IDCC · MCK · MSFT · RMD · V
2026-08-24
8
ADBE · IDCC · MA · META · MSCI · PAYX · RMD · V
+ ADBE MA META MSCI PAYX
− GOOG MCK MSFT
When we sell, the thesis leaves the site: it no longer describes anything we own. The result stays here permanently — it is the only part that commits us.
| Name | Bought | Sold | Held | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFTMicrosoft | $392.28 | $483.63 | 48 d | +23.29% |
| MCKMcKesson | $803.82 | $861.71 | 48 d | +7.20% |
| RMDResMed | $214.83 | $231.64 | 48 d | +7.82% |
| GOOGAlphabet | $357.37 | $342.21 | 48 d | −4.24% |
| MAMastercard | $36.10 | $35.98 | 0 d | −0.33% |
| SBHSally Beauty | $12.97 | $14.29 | 14 d | +10.18% |
| OIIOceaneering | $38.89 | $39.65 | 21 d | +1.95% |
| FHIFederated Hermes | $57.44 | $57.25 | 26 d | −0.33% |
| INGRIngredion | $100.23 | $96.97 | 28 d | −3.25% |
| LAURLaureate Education | $32.75 | $38.93 | 54 d | +18.87% |
| UHSUniversal Health Services | $146.46 | $157.86 | 26 d | +7.78% |
| LRNStride | $97.77 | $91.74 | 26 d | −6.17% |
| ASOAcademy Sports | $51.75 | $50.50 | 4 d | −2.42% |
| URBNUrban Outfitters | $66.37 | $73.80 | 28 d | +11.19% |
| IDTIDT Corporation | $52.95 | $56.15 | 28 d | +6.04% |
| CENTCentral Garden & Pet | $38.58 | $40.71 | 28 d | +5.53% |
| LAURLaureate Education | $32.75 | $35.31 | 28 d | +7.82% |
| MCRIMonarch Casino | $115.74 | $125.22 | 28 d | +8.19% |
| GAPGap Inc. | $21.54 | $21.68 | 1 d | +0.65% |
| AOSA. O. Smith | $57.37 | $58.93 | 1 d | +2.72% |
Every order filled since May 13, 2026, newest first, exactly as the broker recorded them.
| Date | Name | Side | Quantity | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | MA | Buy | 79 | $596.14 | market |
| 2026-08-24 | MA | Sell | 79 | $35.98 | market |
| 2026-08-24 | PAYX | Buy | 737 | $126.53 | market |
| 2026-08-24 | META | Buy | 93 | $553.70 | market |
| 2026-08-24 | ADBE | Buy | 333 | $277.86 | market |
| 2026-08-24 | MSCI | Buy | 152 | $570.99 | market |
| 2026-08-24 | MA | Buy | 79 | $36.10 | market |
| 2026-08-24 | GOOG | Sell | 420 | $342.21 | limit |
| 2026-08-24 | RMD | Sell | 620 | $231.64 | limit |
| 2026-08-24 | MCK | Sell | 215 | $861.71 | limit |
| 2026-08-24 | MSFT | Sell | 395 | $483.63 | limit |
| 2026-08-24 | IDCC | Buy | 62 | $342.37 | limit |
| 2026-07-29 | GOOG | Buy | 132 | $331.77 | market |
| 2026-07-14 | RMD | Buy | 250 | $197.77 | limit |
| 2026-07-07 | MSFT | Buy | 395 | $392.28 | market |
| 2026-07-07 | GOOG | Buy | 288 | $369.11 | market |
| 2026-07-07 | MCK | Buy | 215 | $803.82 | market |
| 2026-07-07 | RMD | Buy | 964 | $219.26 | limit |
| 2026-07-07 | IDCC | Buy | 372 | $282.89 | limit |
| 2026-07-07 | V | Buy | 427 | $350.27 | limit |
| 2026-07-06 | LRN | Sell | 1 396 | $91.74 | market |
| 2026-07-06 | UHS | Sell | 949 | $157.86 | limit |
| 2026-07-06 | LAUR | Sell | 2 409 | $38.93 | limit |
| 2026-07-06 | INGR | Sell | 1 343 | $96.97 | market |
| 2026-07-06 | FHI | Sell | 2 352 | $57.25 | market |
| 2026-07-06 | OII | Sell | 2 781 | $39.65 | market |
| 2026-07-06 | SBH | Sell | 10 665 | $14.29 | market |
| 2026-06-22 | SBH | Buy | 10 665 | $12.97 | limit |
| 2026-06-15 | OII | Buy | 2 781 | $38.89 | limit |
| 2026-06-12 | ASO | Sell | 2 691 | $50.50 | market |
| 2026-06-10 | FHI | Buy | 2 352 | $57.44 | limit |
| 2026-06-10 | LRN | Buy | 1 396 | $97.77 | market |
| 2026-06-10 | UHS | Buy | 949 | $146.46 | market |
| 2026-06-10 | MCRI | Sell | 674 | $125.22 | limit |
| 2026-06-10 | LAUR | Sell | 77 | $35.31 | limit |
| 2026-06-10 | CENT | Sell | 2 676 | $40.71 | limit |
| 2026-06-10 | IDT | Sell | 1 916 | $56.15 | limit |
| 2026-06-10 | URBN | Sell | 1 111 | $73.80 | limit |
| 2026-06-09 | AOS | Sell | 1 096 | $58.93 | market |
| 2026-06-09 | GAP | Sell | 3 738 | $21.68 | market |
| 2026-06-08 | IDT | Buy | 450 | $56.29 | limit |
| 2026-06-08 | INGR | Buy | 1 343 | $100.23 | limit |
| 2026-06-08 | CENT | Buy | 579 | $40.16 | limit |
| 2026-06-08 | AOS | Buy | 1 096 | $57.37 | limit |
| 2026-06-08 | GAP | Buy | 3 738 | $21.54 | limit |
| 2026-06-08 | ASO | Buy | 2 691 | $51.75 | limit |
| 2026-05-13 | MCRI | Buy | 674 | $115.74 | market |
| 2026-05-13 | CENT | Buy | 2 097 | $38.14 | market |
| 2026-05-13 | URBN | Buy | 1 111 | $66.37 | market |
| 2026-05-13 | LAUR | Buy | 2 486 | $32.75 | market |
| 2026-05-13 | IDT | Buy | 1 466 | $51.93 | market |
This record is kept by two analysts based in Montreal. If you want to discuss one of these theses, or the work behind them, write to us.